Bracklewhyte : Juli 2013

Senin, 29 Juli 2013

[S128.Ebook] Ebook Download Essential Mathematics for Economics and Business, by Teresa Bradley

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Now established as one of the leading introductory texts for students studying these subjects, this new edition combines a non-rigorous approach to the subject with applications in economics and business. Fundamental mathematical concepts are explained as simply and briefly as possible, using a wide selection of worked examples, graphs and real-world applications.

Sales Rank: #1104446 in Books
Published on: 2008-07-08
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 13.37" h x 1.37" w x 7.44" l, 3.18 pounds
Binding: Paperback
682 pages

From the Back Cover
Essential Mathematics for Economics and Business has become established as one of the leading introductory textbooks on mathematics for students of these subjects. It combines a non-rigorous approach to mathematics with applications in economics and business. The fundamental mathematical concepts are explained as simply and briefly as possible, using a wide selection of worked examples, graphs and real-world applications.

New to this edition:

Over 100 additional exercises in mathematics and its applications throughout the text.
Worked examples have been revised to enhance clarity, and new examples have been added.
Chapter 1 has been updated to include new material on foundation Mathematics, such as the transposition and evaluation of formulae.
The supporting website has been completely updated, and includes numerous resources for both lecturers and students.

About the Author
Teresa Bradley lectures in mathematics and statistics at Limerick Institute of Technology, and has been involved with the University of London on the external Diploma in Economics as well as the BSc in Economics, Business and Management for many years.
Teresa Bradley is also author of Essential Statistics for Economics, Business and Management, published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Most helpful customer reviews

5 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Good book for Professors and Students
By J. Lucio
I am a teacher of Introductory Mathematics for Economics. Traditionally, it is not very easy to find good introductory books of Mathematical Economics.

I consider this book to be one of the best. It covers the most important mathematical concepts and techniques such as functions, differentiation, partial differentiation, integration, differential equations, financial mathematics. In all the chapters the reader will find several progress exercises adequate to an introductory level.

The authors clearly show a great deal of concern with the economic applications. This is one of the best aspects of this book: for every mathematical technique explained, the authors present several economic applications.

If you are an undergraduate student of Economics or Business you will find this book extremely useful. If you are a Professor you will discover several interesting examples of mathematical applications to Economic analysis.

3 of 5 people found the following review helpful.
Worst book ever
By Moe
So many typos and the prof. Apologized for making us buy such a crappy book.

Don't buy this book it sucks

0 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
It has it's moments
By Leah Hayes
We used this for a class last semester, and I was disappointed. The book is bound poorly, and was falling apart by the end of the semester. Also, I was missing several of the homework problems! There was a table of data for one question, but the questions were not printed in my book. I compared with another student, and his had them. I think 3 of us in the course of 17 had books with this problem. On another chapter, it went from section x.3 to x.5, but the answers for section x.4 matched up with section x.5 in the book. It was really confusing, and my teacher, a grad student, was very apologetic and wished we had used another book. It does have good information and is a good review of a broad range of mathematics, but sometimes I feel like it taught you a, b, and c, and then asked you in the problems for a&q in the same question, when it never covered q at all. It has a lot of potential, but a new corrected edition would be a good idea.

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[E500.Ebook] Ebook The Historians' History Of The World V18: England To 1485 (1904), by Henry Smith Williams

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This scarce antiquarian book is a facsimile reprint of the original. Due to its age, it may contain imperfections such as marks, notations, marginalia and flawed pages. Because we believe this work is culturally important, we have made it available as part of our commitment for protecting, preserving, and promoting the world's literature in affordable, high quality, modern editions that are true to the original work.

Published on: 2010-09-10
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.25" h x 1.35" w x 7.52" l, 2.51 pounds
Binding: Paperback
674 pages

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Jumat, 26 Juli 2013

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‘There is a whistling sound behind us. Shells pass overhead and explode in a sheet of flame a hundred meters away.’ When Paul B�umer and his classmates join the army, nothing has prepared them for the death and destruction that they witness. Machine guns, huge artillery shells and poison gas create a nightmare world for these young men and their older comrades. For months and years attack is followed by counter–attack. Will any of Paul’s friends survive long enough to return to their families and loved ones? Will there be a place for them at home, when peace finally comes? Can any of these soldiers make sense of the massive conflict in which they are involved?

Real Reads are accessible texts designed to support the literacy development of primary and lower secondary age children while introducing them to the riches of our international literary heritage. Each book is a retelling of a work of great literature from one of the world’s greatest cultures, fitted into a 64-page book, making classic stories, dramas and histories available to intelligent young readers as a bridge to the full texts, to language students wanting access to other cultures, and to adult readers who are unlikely ever to read the original versions.

Sales Rank: #901252 in Books
Published on: 2014-03-01
Released on: 2014-03-01
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 7.75" h x 5.00" w x .50" l, .30 pounds
Binding: Paperback
64 pages

About the Author
ERICK MARIA REMARQUE (1898 –1970) was a German teacher, soldier and author.

TONY EVANS started his career as a high school English teacher, and has a Masters Degree in Literary Research from Lancaster University. After working as a Deputy Headteacher in Bristol he became a school inspector and educational consultant, based in Leeds. He is now a full-time writer and lives with his wife in the Yorkshire Dales. Tony has a particular interest in Victorian literature and culture. His publications include a collection of detective stories set in late nineteenth century England, as well as co-authorship of a book on steam locomotives and several books in the Real Reads series of re-told classics.

SARAH WIMPERIS began painting at a very early age as a result of family influences and an inability to spell. She studied fine art at Falmouth School of Art, exhibited with the Portal Gallery, then travelled the world, including China, Russia, Israel and Norway, painting all the way. She returned to Cornwall, raised a lot of children, painted murals for a while, then became a professional illustrator. Since 2008 she has exhibited regularly at the Beside the Wave Gallery in Falmouth, which she now manages.

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Sabtu, 20 Juli 2013

[T979.Ebook] PDF Download BPMN 2.0 Handbook Second Edition: Methods, Concepts, Case Studies and Standards in Business Process Modeling Notation (BPMN), by Robert S

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Sales Rank: #2426555 in Books
Brand: Brand: Future Strategies, Incorporated
Published on: 2011-12-30
Format: DVD
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 10.00" h x .70" w x 7.00" l, 1.18 pounds
Binding: Paperback
308 pages

Features

Used Book in Good Condition

About the Author
ROBERT SHAPIRO is a lawyer specializing in the food and agriculture sectors.

Most helpful customer reviews

2 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
In need of a better index
By P. Warren
Still reviewing it, but already I feel the index could have been much better. And was any editing review or proof reading done before going to print? Finding typos and other easily fixable mistakes.

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Jumat, 19 Juli 2013

[A130.Ebook] PDF Download A New Kind of Science, by Stephen Wolfram

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Challenging the traditional mathematical model of scientific description, a scientist proposes a new dynamic computational approach that utilizes simple codes to generate patterns of ultimate complexity.

Sales Rank: #39189 in Books
Brand: Brand: Wolfram Media
Published on: 2002-05-01
Released on: 2002-05-14
Ingredients: Example Ingredients
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.70" h x 2.47" w x 8.14" l, 5.53 pounds
Binding: Hardcover
1192 pages

Features

Used Book in Good Condition

Amazon.com Review
Physics and computer science genius Stephen Wolfram, whose Mathematica computer language launched a multimillion-dollar company, now sets his sights on a more daunting goal: understanding the universe. Wolfram lets the world see his work in A New Kind of Science, a gorgeous, 1,280-page tome more than a decade in the making. With patience, insight, and self-confidence to spare, Wolfram outlines a fundamental new way of modeling complex systems.

On the frontier of complexity science since he was a boy, Wolfram is a champion of cellular automata--256 "programs" governed by simple nonmathematical rules. He points out that even the most complex equations fail to accurately model biological systems, but the simplest cellular automata can produce results straight out of nature--tree branches, stream eddies, and leopard spots, for instance. The graphics in A New Kind of Science show striking resemblance to the patterns we see in nature every day.

Wolfram wrote the book in a distinct style meant to make it easy to read, even for nontechies; a basic familiarity with logic is helpful but not essential. Readers will find themselves swept away by the elegant simplicity of Wolfram's ideas and the accidental artistry of the cellular automaton models. Whether or not Wolfram's revolution ultimately gives us the keys to the universe, his new science is absolutely awe-inspiring. --Therese Littleton

From Library Journal
Galileo proclaimed that nature is written in the language of mathematics, but Wolfram would argue that it is written in the language of programs and, remarkably, simple ones at that. A scientific prodigy who earned a doctorate from Caltech at age 20, Wolfram became a Nobel-caliber researcher in the emerging field of complexity shortly thereafter only to abscond from academe and establish his own software company (which published this book). In secrecy, for over ten years, he experimented with computer graphics called cellular automata, which produce shaded images on grid patterns according to programmatic rules (973 images are reproduced here). Wolfram went on to discover that the same vastly complex images could be produced by even very simple sets of rules and argues here that dynamic and complex systems throughout nature are triggered by simple programs. Mathematical science can describe and in some cases predict phenomena but cannot truly explain why what happens happens. Underscoring his point that simplicity begets complexity, Wolfram wrote this book in mostly nontechnical language. Any informed, motivated reader can, with some effort, follow from chapter to chapter, but the work as a whole and its implications are probably understood fully by the author alone. Had this been written by a lesser scientist, many academics might have dismissed it as the work of a crank. Given its source, though, it will merit discussion for years to come. Essential for all academic libraries. [This tome is a surprise best seller on Amazon. Ed.] Gregg Sapp, Science Lib., SUNY at Alban.
- Gregg Sapp, Science Lib., SUNY at Albany
Copyright 2002 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

About the Author
Wolfram is the creator of the Wolfram Language, Wolfram|Alpha, Mathematica, and is a well known scientist.

Most helpful customer reviews

4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
I'm still not sure what he's done
By Michael J. Edelman
The world of mathematics is regularly disrupted by paradigm-shattering inventions and discoveries, some of which turn out to have great important, and most of which turn out to be nothing more than sound and fury, signifying nothing. Sometimes it takes a decade or more to fully evaluate a piece of work. Consider Benoit Mandelbrot's work with fractals, which was at first discarded as a sort of epiphenomenal curiosity, but which later revolutionized fields as far ranging as computer animation and cardiac medicine. But for every Mandelbrot there are a dozen circle squarers or people like G. Spencer Brown, whose "Laws of Form"was characterized by John Conway as "elegant and content free."

So where does Wolfram stand on this continuum? He's clearly brilliant, as evidenced by his citation index numbers (over 30,000!) and his Mathematica has revolutionized mathematical computation. He's also contributed major papers to the field of cellular automata and complexity theory. He spent a decade working on A New Science, and his argument that the underlying nature of reality is expressed not in physical laws, but in programs.

So is Wolfram right? Is there, contained within the multitude of patterns and algorithms in this book, a new insight into the nature of reality? Frankly, I'm nowhere near a good enough mathematician to evaluate his work, or to compare it to the work of others in the CA field. This book may in fact contain hidden within it the secrets to the underlying reality of the universe, or it may be, as another reviewer wittily put it, "an undergraduate project gone haywire." We may have to wait another decade to know. Until we do, the prospective reader is probably better served by the variety of inexpensive programs that are now available to explore CA than to slog through 1,280 pages of finely-printed diagrams.

1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
Boring
By Kalifer Deil
Although I think there is merit in looking for simple fundamental mechanisms to explain nature this book could have been reduced to a 8 page pamphlet to thoroughly explain his concepts. If you sorted the words in this book around one hundred pages would be filled with the word "I". There is nothing Earth shaking here just some basic cellular automata and lots of really boring-you-to-tears examples.

6 of 6 people found the following review helpful.
Encyclopaedia of somewhat interesting but useless digressions
By Matthew J Farley
Seems Wolfram spent 10 years on adderall creating a cross referenced collection of stories about how smart he is with very little worthwhile material.

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Selasa, 16 Juli 2013

[G384.Ebook] Fee Download Treason, by Berlie Doherty

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Treason, by Berlie Doherty

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Adventure, friendship, treason, and betrayal—a rich and exciting historical novel of the Tudor period�Will Montague is a page to Prince Edward, the son of King Henry VIII. As the King's favorite, Will gains many enemies in Court. When his enemies convince the King that Will's father has committed treason and he is�thrown into Newgate Prison, Will flees Hampton Court and goes into hiding in the back streets of London. Lost and in mortal danger, he is rescued by a poor boy, Nick Drew. Together they must brave imprisonment and death as they embark on a great adventure to set Will's father free.

Sales Rank: #3275957 in Books
Brand: Andersen Press
Published on: 2012-04-01
Released on: 2011-03-07
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 8.00" h x .70" w x 5.00" l, .40 pounds
Binding: Paperback
264 pages

Review
"A beautifully crafted book, packed with rich detail and a convincing sense of time and place."� —School Librarian

"A beautifully paced and measured story . . . Berlie Doherty manages to involve the reader completely in Will's world."� —Books for Keeps

"The writing is flawless, the pacing perfect. This is historical fiction at its finest."� –School Library Journal

"Readers will be held by the religious and political history made personal."� —Booklist Online�

About the Author
Berlie Doherty has written more than 35 books for children, including Classic Fairy Tales, Coconut Comes to School, The Goblin Baby, and�The Nutcracker. She has twice won the Carnegie Medal.

Most helpful customer reviews

0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Great read!
By Juanita Shrader
I don't know why, but I was very pleasantly surprised by this great read! Told from the point of an young boy, Will Montague, who through a set of circumstances becomes a personal servant of the King's son and heir, 18-month-old Prince Edward.

After the first chapter, which sets up the rest of the book, it was a super fast read that was hard to put down. I found myself fascinated by young Will's internal struggle with his father, and the journey that he takes to uphold his family name and gain his father's approval.

Doherty's mastery of writing is evident as the pages came alive with the sights, sounds and smells of 16th century England.

No bad language or inappropriate situations, just an excellent book! I highly recommend it.

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Jumat, 12 Juli 2013

[S830.Ebook] Free PDF Lectures in Systematic Theology, by Henry C. Thiessen

Free PDF Lectures in Systematic Theology, by Henry C. Thiessen

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Lectures in Systematic Theology, by Henry C. Thiessen

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Originally published in 1949 and then revised in 1979, this comprehensive introduction to systematic theology has well served countless students and pastors for more than half a century. In this paperback edition it will continue to instruct serious students of the Bible and theology.

Following two introductory chapters delineating the nature, necessity, possibility, and divisions of theology, Henry Clarence Thiessen systematically address a wide range of subjects in eight major sections -- Theism, Bibliology, Theology, Anthropology, Soteriology, Ecclesiology, Angelology, and Eschatology. Also included are two specialized indexes for further study -- an Index of Subjects and an Index of Scriptural References that includes over 4,000 entries.

Sales Rank: #57546 in Books
Published on: 2006-11-09
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.00" h x .95" w x 6.00" l, 1.42 pounds
Binding: Paperback
480 pages

Features

ISBN13: 9780802827296
Condition: Used - Like New
Notes: 100% Satisfaction Guarantee. Tracking provided on most orders. Buy with Confidence! Millions of books sold!

About the Author
VERNON DOERKSEN (B.A., Pacific College; B.D., Th.M., Talbot Theological Seminary; Th.D., Grace Theological Seminary) was dean of students and professor of Bible and theology at Arizona Bible College.

Most helpful customer reviews

71 of 76 people found the following review helpful.
A layman concerened with truth
By Trevor O. Stoute
This work, IN ITS ORIGINAL FORM, as a basic work in systematic theology, is top of the class, even after 54 years. Thiessen is concise, and his arguments are Biblical. I highly recommend it, regardless of your level of Biblical education.
I owned/managed a Christian bookstore. I have become quite familar, and in some cases intimately so, with theological writings. Most of the time I was disappointed with the treatment concerning salvation and associated doctrines as they were written primarily from a Calvinist/Reformed viewpoint. I had been looking for a work that dealt with the issues in a strictly Biblical manner, and HCT's work came to my attention.
While researching it I discovered that the original work had been 'edited', and the editing actually changed what HCT had stated originally. I purchased a used copy of the original, borrowed a copy of the edited version and did a comparison, particularly concerning the issues I already mentioned. To my dismay I discovered that HCT's stand and teaching on the matter had been markedly changed.
In reading the original work I was impressed with the similarity of my conclusions from my Biblical understanding to those of HCT. It immediately became my preferred theological work.
In the edited work this statement is made: "Extensive revisions mark the sections on inspiration, election, demons, and pretribulationism." The fact is that what HCT believed was the Biblical position and taught in his work was changed-up to make certain of his positions unrecognizable.
Apart from the theological disposition of the reader, it is, in my view, unethical to add, remove, and change a person's work to the extent that what they originally stated is perverted, that is, is no longer recognizable as the author's position. The upshot of that is that when a post 1979 edition is purchased with HCT's name on the cover, the reader is assuming that the content is the position of the original author. In this case, they are tragically misled.
I searched for and purchased several used coped of the original and sold them in the bookstore, recommending it above all others. I still do recommend it as the best introductory level theology I know of.
If you choose to buy it, search for a pre-1979 edition and get HCT's statements on the issues. They are invaluable.

9 of 9 people found the following review helpful.
The one I keep using
By Daniel Stanfield
This is a conservative, pre-millineal theology which is in line with the Baptist denominations as well as most non-denominational Bible churches. It also generally agrees with Chafer, Scofield, Walvoord, Geisler, and Ryrie.

I like the logic, the concise presentation - lots of inline partial quotes from references. I also like the organization very well. Even though I own several excellent theology books and sets, this is the one I really use the most.

22 of 28 people found the following review helpful.
Outstanding Introduction to Systematic Theology
By A Customer
I have both the 1949 edition as well as the 1981 revision of Thiessen's Lectures and I can honestly say that the 1981 revision is a definite improvement over the original work, while retaining the vast majority of the original author's writings intact.
Contrary to what another reviewer said, the revised version's treatment of the Doctrine of Election is more biblically based, fundamentally sound, and theologically correct than the original and certainly represents the scriptural view of Election more faithfully.
Thiessen's work, though not as complete as other major works of theology, such as those by Hodge, Berkhof, Shedd, or Strong, is an excellent resource for pastors to use as an introduction to the study of systematic theology for church leaders or lay ministers. We use Thiessen in our church for training the ministerial staff and it is highly regarded by all of our church leaders. I highly recommend it.

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Selasa, 02 Juli 2013

[E643.Ebook] Download PDF Beyond Greed and Fear: Finance and the Psychology of Investing, by Hersh Shefrin

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Beyond Greed and Fear: Finance and the Psychology of Investing, by Hersh Shefrin

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Even the best Wall Street investors make mistakes. No matter how savvy or experienced, all financial practitioners eventually let bias, overconfidence, and emotion cloud their judgement and misguide their actions. Yet most financial decision-making models fail to factor in these fundamentals of human nature. In Beyond Greed and Fear, the most authoritative guide to what really influences the decision-making process, Hersh Shefrin uses the latest psychological research to help us understand the human behavior that guides stock selection, financial services, and corporate financial strategy. Shefrin argues that financial practitioners must acknowledge and understand behavioral finance--the application of psychology to financial behavior--in order to avoid many of the investment pitfalls caused by human error. Through colorful, often humorous real-world examples, Shefrin points out the common but costly mistakes that money managers, security analysts, financial planners, investment bankers, and corporate leaders make, so that readers gain valuable insights into their own financial decisions and those of their employees, asset managers, and advisors. According to Shefrin, the financial community ignores the psychology of investing at its own peril. Beyond Greed and Fear illuminates behavioral finance for today's investor. It will help practitioners to recognize--and avoid--bias and errors in their decisions, and to modify and improve their overall investment strategies.

Sales Rank: #898984 in Books
Brand: Brand: Oxford University Press, USA
Published on: 2000-01-15
Original language: English
Number of items: 1
Dimensions: 9.10" h x 1.40" w x 6.10" l,
Binding: Hardcover
384 pages

Features

Used Book in Good Condition

Amazon.com Review
Psychology rules the stock market, according to Hersh Shefrin. In Beyond Greed and Fear, Shefrin shows how bias, perception, and other aspects of psychology often rattle investors and move stocks. From the individual who keeps losers too long to overconfident money managers who mistakenly think they can predict financial trends, human nature foils investment returns. "Behavioral finance is everywhere that people make financial decisions. Psychology is hard to escape; it touches every corner of the financial landscape, and it's important. Financial practitioners need to understand the impact that psychology has on them and those around them. Practitioners ignore psychology at their peril," writes Shefrin, a finance professor at Santa Clara University. An academic volume geared toward financial professionals, the book details an emerging field known as behavioral finance, in which psychology is believed to be at least as important as market fundamentals, such as earnings and balance sheets. Shefrin describes how investors are motivated by fear, hope, overconfidence, and the need for short-term gratification. The book gives plenty of examples of investment mistakes, and analyzes them from a behavioral-finance perspective. While Beyond Greed and Fear targets professionals, individual investors will benefit from this look at an important mover of markets. --Dan Ring

From Library Journal
Behavioral finance is defined by Shefrin (finance, Santa Clara Univ.) as "a rapidly growing area that deals with the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners." This comprehensive study is aimed primarily at practitionersAportfolio managers, analysts, and financial advisersAwho, according to Shefrin, "need to know that because of human nature, they make particular types of mistakes." Shefrin provides a historical background of finance theory, studies of behavioral analysis, and a review of major contributions to the literature. The book is divided into six parts: behavioral finance, the stock market, individual investors, money managers, corporate executives, and options, futures, and foreign exchange. In addition to numerous case studies, Shefrin utilizes statistical charts and tables to illustrate his central theories and concepts. Important and thought-provoking, this study is recommended for academic faculty and students as well as finance practitioners.ALucy T. Heckman, St. John's Univ. Lib., NY
Copyright 1999 Reed Business Information, Inc.

Review

"This refreshingly iconoclastic book awakens us all to how little we know about financial markets, and how much we have to discover. I particularly enjoyed the reference to the emperor's clothes worn by the mutual fund industry. Shefrin's clear reaffirmation of the fallibility of professional investors will lead even the most impressionable of investors to consider, yet again, the advantages of market indexing strategies."--John Bogle, Founder and Senior Chairman, The Vanguard Group, and author, Common Sense on Mutual Funds

"Behavioral finance is about normal people and the markets that drive them crazy. Shefrin's insights into these people and markets will provide you with solutions to many financial puzzles--as you read the book and long after you close it."--Meir Statman, Glenn Klimek Professor of Finance, Leavey School of Business, Santa Clara University

"Beyond Greed and Fear challenges your most fundamental assumptions about investing and uncovers psychological traps that may prevent you from achieving higher returns on your portfolio."--Martin S. Fridson, Managing Director, Merrill Lynch & Co., and author, How to Be a Billionaire

"Shefrin synthesizes a wealth of research and observations about human behavior and financial anomalies into a broad and deep perspective on financial markets. No other book so splendidly lays out the fundamentals of behavioral finance."--Robert Shiller, Stanley B. Resor Professor of Economics, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

"Beyond Greed and Fear is the first truly comprehensive behavioral finance book written for practitioners. It should be required reading for portfolio managers and traders."--W. Van Harlow III, President and CIO, Strategic Advisors, Fidelity Investments

Most helpful customer reviews

90 of 98 people found the following review helpful.
A slow waltz through the psychology of investing
By Bruce_in_LA
This book has a good heart, but I can't recommend it so highly. The author takes several classical cognitive mistakes that humans make (some will recognize the classic names of Kahnemann and Tversky; they are one of the substrates of this book). The author applies such mistakes to a wide range of investment problems - holding on to losing stocks too long, anthropomorphizing stock decisions, and so on. The sort of psychology that makes you think that a coin that has flipped tails three times now has a 95% chance of flipping heads on the next toss. Most intelligent readers (the sort that buy Harvard Press books) could get the same points in a much briefer format, like a book chapter or a 10-page article. For example, people tend not to save enough for retirement because the future seems a long time away and they think they'll catch up and it will work out. Well, yes. Next?

44 of 54 people found the following review helpful.
A random walk through behavioral finance.
By Patient Researcher
This book contains some interesting tidbits. Unfortunately, it is rife with serious errors and unwarranted assertions.
For example, in chapter 6 Prof. Shefrin attempts to discredit contrarian sentiment indicators. For all I know they may be worthy of discredit. Unfortunately for his argument, the data he chooses to display, Figures 6-1 and 6-3, appear to support the value of these indicators.
He declares the practice of investing in companies one knows to be "familiarity bias". While this is apt for employees with all funds in the company stock, he also applies it to Peter Lynch. According to Shefrin, Lynch beat the market 11 out of 13 years, and beat his nearest competitor by 6%(!) per year. Shefrin grudgingly admits there may have been some skill involved, but goes on to inform us that _investors_ "attribute too much of that success to skill rather than luck". Uh-huh.
In his chapter on public offerings, Prof. Shefrin declares that existing shareholders are being ripped off, because dramatic gains at the start of trading demonstrate the IPO could have sold at a higher price. Apparently Prof. Shefrin is unaware that underwriters enter into an obligation to support the aftermarket, and would be unlikely proceed without a good chance of an aftermarket pop, nor would subscribers purchase.
The chapter on closed end fund discounts is interesting. Unfortunately Prof. Shefrin fails to include the net present value of future management fees in his discussion.
Perhaps there will be a much revised and improved second edition.

35 of 40 people found the following review helpful.
Selective Presentation of the Evidence
By Herbert Gintis
I am a behavioral economist with a deep belief in the notion that human decision-makers deviate in important ways from the scientific principles laid down in modern rational choice theory. There is no doubt but that very many investors hold erroneous notions of the dynamics of price movements, and having a correct understanding will, on average lead to better returns on one's portfolio. Sheffrin presents the evidence for this position in an interesting and accessible manner.

Shefrin's main advice for investors is absolutely correct, and would improve the asset positions of many poor souls with idiotic notions of stock dynamics. His advice is that if you are not a gifted and dedicated stock expert, you should invest in a low-maintenance cost array of mutual funds, and above all, do not churn your stocks. It doesn't help to be smart, lucky, a stud with the girls, or blessed by God. Moreover, if you think you have one of the "gifted analysts" for a broker, you are to be counted as among the suckers who are never given an even break.

Shefrin has another thesis which he presents with great verve, but which is on very shakey grounds. This is that "gifted stock analysts" can on average, significantly out-perform the market. He believes this MUST be the case if a significant fraction of investors are behaving irrationality. However, there is another possibility, which is that stock brokers as a group gain from the excessive churning that irrational investors permit or ask them to do, but that it is impossible to "beat the market" except by pure luck or by personally studying firm fundamentals and future prospects.

Shefrin's data in favor of the "gifted analyst" is episodic and anecdotal, and there is plenty of data on the other side. For instance, in Malkiel's classic "Random Walk Down Wall Street", he relates the evidence that chimps throwing darts do as well as major brokerage houses. Sheffrin presents contrary evidence for a more recent period in which "gifted experts" outperform the random darts. New evidence, collected by Money magazine, shows that a group of experts did far worse than the darts in 2003. All of this evidence is spotty and anecdotal. The plural of anecdote is not data.

I am not convinced by this book that the efficient markets hypothesis, applied to final returns to investors (after payments to stock brokers and other transactions costs), is not correct. I think the author makes a mistake taking so strong a position when the evidence is so weak on this account. I am certainly not convinced that Malkiel's analysis is in any way overturned by new evidence.

However, if Shefrin convinces a few investors to act more sanely, he will have fulfilled an important social function.

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